CORRECTION: The link for "Navigating the Enrollment Cliff in Higher Education by A. Shuette had been updated.

By Paula Pyzik Scott

In early December 2023, Ohio Northern University held a Town Hall meeting with students to talk about preparing to cut faculty and staff jobs because of a looming “enrollment cliff” that is anticipated by colleges and universities.

The number of children born in the United States fell during the Great Recession, between 2008-2011. As a result, a 15% drop in the college-age population is forecast for 2025. Across the nation, college enrollment is expected to peak and then steadily decline.

The Icon spoke with ONU Provost Julie Hurtig about an academic program viability review that is being currently being conducted at the department level. Hurtig explained that being dependent on tuition, the non-profit university is making sure it will be able to maintain a balanced budget. She commented, “through the demographic cliff, we have been forced into a situation to perform the program viability [analysis].”

ONU academic departments are currently reviewing ways to streamline their programs. The minimum number of students needed for a class to “make” will be increased and some majors may be eliminated. Hurtig stressed that the university has a responsibility to see all current students through their degree programs and that accommodations will be made to provide the teaching resources they need.

ONU employees have been told that there will be job reductions among faculty and staff.

Hurtig emphasized that these cuts are not a reflection on the quality of instruction. Rather, it is a reflection of the demand for these programs. “It depends on how well your programs are aligned with employer needs,” said Hurtig.

The demographic cliff is a concern across the nation. A strong job market, student debt and regional population declines are also factors in university enrollment. 

A 2023 study spotlighted by the U.S. Department of Education shows that Ohio is among states forecast to have the greatest decline in college-going students through 2029. The work found that Ohio higher education enrollment dropped 12% from Fall 2022 to Fall 2012. Therefore, belt tightening has become a familiar process at Ohio colleges and universities.

Hurtig responded that Ohio Northern has not seen a comparable enrollment drop. Since 2018, ONU has seen just a 3% drop in enrollment, which Hurtig connects with the university’s “rich portfolio of programs.” For 2022, U.S. News and World Report listed the following as the top three programs at the university:

• Engineering - 25%
• Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services - 17%
• Health Professions and Related Programs - 10%

In December, Hurtig spoke with students at the Town Hall meeting, which was reported on the Northern Review, the student news website. ONU students expect another Town Hall meeting in February and that decisions will be announced in late March.